Whenever something needs upper level funding here its quite literally a matter of begging the appropriate minister for an individual grant. Operating subsidies are negotiated annually, and have in fact been completely revoked by certain governments.

Federal funding is almost nonexistent with no operating grants, while some capital has recently been commited in BC and Ontario. Legally transit shouldn’t be Federal I grant, but the fiscal reality is the Feds are the only ones with the cash, and isn’t it the same way in the US anyway? As for the provinces, none have real long term arrangements for operating costs, and capital is completely arbitrary. Honestly I’d take the FTA wtih all its problems, even the BRT obsession, if we could just HAVE operating aggreements and New Starts.

Taking note of how the ridership on H-town’s Main Street line has blown past the projections for 12 or 15 years out reminds me of your most recent post on the 80/20 or not funding scheme.

Others commented how often the estimates are inaccurate, whether for the number of riders or the amount of allegedly transit induced development.

Maybe some equity would come from rewarding systems that actually, measurably succeed.

So how about giving some funding based on actual numbers of new riders for a few years after a new line opening? You could allow the transit agencies to use that ‘reward money’ with very loose strings — to buy more streetcars, hire more drivers, and run trains more frequently perhaps. Or use it toward the local share of the next new set of tracks or similar expansion efforts.

The ‘reward for success’ would recognize the difficult-to-forecast externalities, the benefits from energy and pollution savings, lower oil imports, etc.

Big projects like the Second Avenue Subway would get huge ‘success rewards’ if the subway system got a huge increase in passengers.

Of course, the economic cycle could override any success or failure of a given new line, but there might be a way to adjust for that. The new SAS riders measured at the three new stations could earn ‘rewards’ in some ratio to the total riders in the subway system. Details can be worked out.

But small systems could also get huge benefits. Phoenix is already boasting rider totals far ahead of projections. They could easily use ‘reward’ money to expand with new tracks, or added cars and more frequent service. The Hiawatha line in the Twin Cities was a similar success, confounding the skeptics. If those new riders earned ‘reward funding’, that money could have helped to pay for the discussed and delayed Central Line linking the Hiawatha line in Minneapolis to St. Paul.